From tomorrow's Christian Science Monitor: Hillary Campaign Advisors Wolfson and Garin say it's not that Obama can't win in November, it's that the data shows Hillary has a better chance:
At the top of the ballot, current state polling data show that Clinton would defeat Sen. John McCain, the presumptive GOP nominee, by 42 electoral votes, while the same polls show Obama losing to Senator McCain by 8 electoral votes, they said.
The Clinton strategists also came armed with charts looking at 20 House districts where freshmen Democrats won but which also voted for George Bush in 2004. Clinton defeated Obama in 16 of those 20 districts. Their argument: Clinton would help vulnerable House members more than Obama. Asked about the breakdown of endorsements from those 16 freshmen, Wolfson said that five had so far backed her and four, Obama.
As for how long she's staying in :[More]
"We do not believe a nominee will be chosen unless or until somebody gets to 2,209 [delegates], which is the number including Florida and Michigan. So if that has happened by June 3, then someone will be the nominee. If that hasn't, then the nomination fight continues," Howard Wolfson, Senator Clinton's communications director, told a Monitor-sponsored breakfast on Friday.
We are not oblivious to the environment in which we are operating. But this is very much like a tennis match," Clinton's chief strategist, Geoff Garin, told reporters at the breakfast. "Sometimes, even when people are down two sets to love and down a couple of games in the third set, they end up winning by the fifth set. So Senator Clinton goes on with the same energy and commitment."
Since the race is ongoing, and superdelegates can change their mind up until they vote at the convention in August, here are the voter registration numbers (pdf)for West Virgina.
Seems to me the critical thing now for Hillary is voter turnout. Obama is brushing off W.Va. and KY and hoping people won't turn out, thinking their vote doesn't matter. Their votes may matter. They matter in the popular vote total and because we don't have a nominee yet, no matter how many pundits, pollsters and journalists think we do.
It's over when one candidate drops out or delegates are counted at the convention in August: pledged, unpledged, add-on and superdelegates.
As for the current state of electoral votes, from my earlier post, with Obama winning N.C. but losing W.Va., I don't think he gets past 265 votes in November. He needs 270. With Hillary winning W.Va. but not N.C., her total is 317.
Remember, as to this latest month of primaries, Indiana, Kentucky, Montana and South Dakota will go Republican in November no matter who the nominee is. Only W. Va. and N. Carolina are battleground states. Oregon will go Democratic whoever wins.
The real question is who has a better chance of taking Ohio, PA and Florida? Together those three states have 68 electoral votes. N.C. has 15, W. Va has 5. Together, Colorado and N.M.have 14.
Walked Sammy and Chester;
Walked Scotch;
Came home and showered and had a salad;
Fed & walked Huck & Finn;
Worked KW 4:30 - 9;
Visited Tater & Jack on the way home;
Am home long enough to feed cats and change clothes and then;
Off to walk Huck & Finn again.
Tomorrow:
Up at 7:45 to walk Huck & Finn at 8;
Back for a small nap;
Over to help Pat & Aimee move;
Laundry at some point;
Tater & Jack that night.
Sunday:
Go to Winston for Mother's Day.
Tater & Jack that night.
Most of the rest of the past week:
Fairly similar.
Included finding out that I owed the Feds another $720 that I didn't pay on my taxes because either I or TurboTax fucked up a form.
Didn't have $720 lying around -- had to accept a loan from parents.
Am VERY NOT HAPPY about said situation, because a) I don't understand how I could owe that much, b) even when my dad and brother explain it, I still don't fucking get it, c) I worked SO DAMN HARD to avoid just this, the having to accept money from my parents -- I made a high interest money market, I put money in it all year, and I was SO glad and SO relieved when I had enough in it (I thought) to pay all my taxes. I paid a month ahead of deadline, and I was SO glad to be done with it.
Fucking taxes.
The KW income is already helping somewhat, though.
Oh, had my 10-year Salem reunion. May write more about that later. I also owe a couple people emails, but it's been a busy... uh... month.
Tired.
Abandoned Hotels
The Pines Hotel
Found these two while looking thru LJ archives for something else:
Sarah: Podka, dodka, codka made from fiiiiishieeees!
Sarah: I think you can't really tell — well, unless it's furry. Why, did you eat a furry pickle?
So Your Cat Has Ass Breath
God. I'd forgotten how funny she used to be.
I don't obsess about this -- as in -- it doesn't eat up my days and nights -- and I'm probably about as "out" as a queer can be in this country -- but every single time I take my partner's hand on the street, or toss my arm over her shoulder or around her waist, hug her goodbye or hello, I do a little, tiny "security sweep".
Rollercoaster Creator
Rasmussen polling says Hillary can't win, they are going to stop polling her and poll only Obama and McCain.
With this in mind, Rasmussen Reports will soon end our daily tracking of the Democratic race and focus exclusively on the general election competition between Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama. Barring something totally unforeseen, that is the choice American voters will have before them in November. While we have not firmly decided upon a final day for tracking the Democratic race, it is coming soon.
Today's Numbers: Hillary 48% to McCain 43%. Obama 47% to McCain 44%.
West VA: Hillary 56, Obama 27.
Gallup Daily: "Obama not pulling away yet". Dates polled, May 6 to May 8, 2/3 of whom were polled after Tuesday's election results were known. Obama 48, Hillary 46.
Gallup says "Obama remains in a statistical dead heat with Clinton for the 16th consecutive day."
Via Glenn Reynolds, Rep. Steve Cohen (D-TN), a Barack Obama supporter, trafficking in more sexism:
Memphis Commercial Appeal's Blake Fontenay: According to U.S. Rep. Steve Cohen, D-Memphis, she may be starting to more closely resemble another famous movie character: The psycho lady played by Glenn Close in "Fatal Attraction."
When asked about whether Clinton should drop out of the race on Fox 13's "Good Morning Memphis" program today, Cohen said: "Glenn Close should have stayed in that tub."
Nice. Sexism is the bigotry that has the imprimatur of respectability it seems.
By the way, for folks and bloggers who are getting tired of my harping on the rampant sexism directed at Hillary Clinton, I say this, when it stops, then I will stop.
By special request, here's another open thread.
I'm working on my outline for the NORML Aspen Legal Seminar which is due Tuesday. My topic this year: Crackadoodledoo! A New Dawn in Crack Cocaine Sentencing
I'll be back later to see how you are all doing.
Update: For any of you having trouble viewing comments as usual in closed threads or threads with more than 150 comments, Colin says:
go to your user preference page and set the comment display mode that you want for overflow comments. The formats are explained in the descriptive text immediately following the preference item 'Comment Display Mode (Overflow) - That description applies equally to the first preference item on the page, which controls the display mode to be used for threads of less than the overflow limit number of comments.
What would happen if marijuana were legal? In the LA Times today, "This Bud's For You."
I always wondered what would happen if marijuana were legalized for anyone over 18. It seems it already has been, and nothing happened.
Except, people still get busted and go to jail.
Which reminds me, NORML founder Keith Stroup's trial for smoking a joint at a press conference in Boston begins Monday. Keith and his codefendant, High Times associate publisher Rick Cusick are challenging the constitutionality of the law criminalizing adult pot possession and use. They also requested a jury nullification instruction. [More...]
The defense will also file a separate motion requesting a special jury instruction to the effect that a juror has the legal right to refuse to convict an individual, even if he or she admits to the elements of a crime, if the juror believes the application of the law to that particular defendant would create an injustice.
If you're in Boston, head on over and show your support for Keith and Rick on Monday. Here's how to recognize them:
I hope they let Keith out in time for the NORML Aspen Legal Seminar June 6 and 7. It wouldn't be the same without him. We'll be spending one afternoon at Hunter Thompson's Owl Farm in Woody Creek again. If you're a criminal defense lawyer or if you're a medical pot user and want to hang with sympaticos, you're welcome to attend. Here's my video from our 2006 Owl Farm party and me interviewing Tommy Chong at Owl Farm in 2007. My topic this year: Crackadoodledoo! A New Dawn in Crack Cocaine Sentencing. Here's the full schedule.
Not in Boston? How about Minnesota? They're trying to get a compassionate law passed there and are running into trouble with false ads. The e-mail I received says:
We have a bill in the legislature that's already passed the full Senate and is pending a vote in the House any day now. Although it has had Republican support in the legislature form the start, Minnesota's Gov. Pawlenty has stated that he "stands with law enforcement" on the issue – meaning, presumably, in opposition to it and inclined to veto on the basis of a small but vocal group of prosecutors and law enforcement officials who have repeatedly testified against it through the committee process.
There's only one problem: these opponents – who so adamantly defend their right to arrest and jail the sick and dying for using marijuana with their doctor's recommendation – have made false claim after false claim, some of which have been outright lies.
They are looking for media attention -- the local press is ignoring it:
It's staggering that elected officials like County Attorneys and law enforcement officers are permitted to just lie about legislation and, when they're called on it, the media seems uninterested, no matter how well it's documented. I suppose this is in the interest of "balance" – and also why independent media and blogs like yours are so crucial.
Whoops, Obama in Oregon today:
It is wonderful to be back in Oregon," Obama said. "Over the last 15 months, we’ve traveled to every corner of the United States. I’ve now been in 57 states? I think one left to go. Alaska and Hawaii, I was not allowed to go to even though I really wanted to visit, but my staff would not justify it."
The Times' conscientious Robin Abcarian thought she heard something different there. She checked her tape recorder. It had captured what he had actually said -- 57 states now.
He even paused before he said "57" as if he was thinking about the number. Obama explained afterwards:[More...]
At a later stop Obama was talking with reporters and expressed concern he'd also mis-stated the number of potential cyclone victims in Burma. He said, ""I hope I said 100,000 people the first time instead of 100 million. I understand I said there were 57 states today. It's a sign that my numeracy is getting a little, uh." At that point, an aide cut him off and ushered journalists out. Before he could mis-speak again?)
And who knew that's why he didn't go to Hawaii, the state he grew up in -- because his "staff would not justify it."?
57...The Times asks if it's a reference to John Kerry's Heinz 57. Maybe it's a reference to his supporter Bruce Springsteen's song, "57 channels and nothing on." I've been thinking that since Tuesday night.
All election topics welcome here.
Alternet has a profile of Bush judicial nominee Gus Puryear.
From a corporate standpoint, Puryear has excelled in his job as general counsel for Corrections Corp. of America (CCA), the nation's largest and most influential private prison company. Under his direction, CCA's in-house attorneys work with a stable of contracted law firms to handle corporate legal matters of all kinds, not the least of which are the hundreds of claims and lawsuits filed against the company at any given time. A smart, enthusiastic GOP stalwart, Puryear is the kind of guy the party wants around. It doesn't hurt that he's also very, very rich: Between his bank account, assets and unexercised CCA shares, he's worth about $13 million, give or take a few thousand.
Alliance for Justice, which has a full report on Puryear, says:
Mr. Puryear's public comments indicate hostility towards civil rights lawsuits in general and to those brought by prisoners in particular.
[More...]
Scott Horton at Harper's has more, as does Time Magazine. Puryear is 39 years old. A federal judicial appointment is for life. Here is Tennesseans Against Gus Puryear. My earlier post is here.
Read the letter (pdf) from Tennessee's Chief Medical Examiner to Sen. Leahy charging that Puryear was untruthful in his confirmation hearing testimony.
Also,
He's CCA's general counsel and would hold a judgeship in the same district where CCA's corporate office is located, where numerous lawsuits against CCA are filed. He has very little experience in the federal courts; during his time at CCA he has worked to conceal damaging information about the company, and has belittled prisoner litigation. He is further a member of a blatantly discriminatory country club (against women, see here, pdf), and has made misleading statements to the Senate Judiciary Committee concerning the death of a prisoner at a CCA facility. The top lawyer for the nation's largest for-profit private prison company is particularly ill suited to serve as a federal judge.
He also seems unqualified for a lifetime appointment to the federal bench:
According to the federal court dockets, and by Mr. Puryear's own admission, he has been actively involved in only five federal cases over his entire legal career, and only two cases that went to trial -- most recently 10 years ago.
Further, in one of the only two cases he took to trial (which he lost), Mr. Puryear's client sought to have him removed from the case, twice.
....Mr. Puryear has authored only one published law journal article, in 1992. Apparently his qualifications for a federal judgeship are not based on his extensive knowledge as a trial attorney, nor on his litigation experience or academic credentials. Nor is his ABA ranking noteworthy. The ratings are available here. Thus, Mr. Puryear is ranked in the bottom 25% of his judicial nominee peers.
Puryear is an unqualified, partisan political appointment.
Puryear is a dedicated Republican supporter, having previously worked under Republican Senators Bill Frist and Fred Thompson. He was an advisor to Vice President Cheney during the 2000 debates. He has given at least $13,450 to federal and state Republican campaign committees since 2001; specific donations include $3,000 to Sen. Bob Corker from 2005-2006, $1,000 for Mitt Romney in 2007, $2,000 to President Bush for the primary in 2003, $1,000 to Lamar Alexander's Senate campaign in 2005, and $1,000 to Sen. Kit Bond in 2003. The Nashville Post referred to Mr. Puryear as a "Republican heavyweight."
Puryear's employer, CCA, has been generous to Tennessee Senators Lamar Alexander and Bob Corker, too. From 2003 to 2008, CCA and the company's subsidiaries, employees and their spouses donated over $30,000 to Senator Alexander and $27,250 to Senator Corker. CCA co-founder Tom Beasley has donated over $100,000 to Senator Alexander, and CCA's extensive connections with Senator Alexander go way back. Both Senators Alexander and Corker have strongly supported Mr. Puryear's nomination; however, they have not acknowledged that Puryear and CCA have made significant donations to their political campaigns.
The National Lawyers Guild also opposes Puryear. Do does the AFSCME Union (pdf).
Gus Puryear's nomination hearing was held on Feb. 12, 2008. The Senate Judiciary Committee has not yet voted on his nomination. There is still time to oppose his confirmation.
Senator Patrick Leahy
433 Russell Senate Office Bldg.
United States Senate
Washington, DC 20510
(202) 224-4242
e-mail
You can also contact other members of the committee, especially if they are from your state, as well as your state's U.S. senators. A list of the Senate Judiciary Committee's membership is available at this link:
You can find the contact information for your state's Senators here.
Obama’s now vacuumed up the majority of the grassroots donors, is discouraging his donors from giving to anyone else, and there’s no point whatsoever to placating the netroots. I can’t believe Stoller doesn’t get that. They don’t need us, and we will have no influence whatsoever in an Obama administration. Those of you who dream of a new progressive netroots Utopia will have a rather rude awakening, I think. (Not that this makes some huge difference in my own life - I’ve never thought bloggers were anywhere near as influential as they like to think.)
Yep. It's not that the Netroots sold out. It's that they got nothing on issues, or anything else, in exchange for their unstinting support of Barack Obama. The whole thing has been extremely strange.
Yep, again I just speak for me.
Tax revenues would skyrocket if the tax cuts expire, due to "bracket creep." Average incomes are higher today than in the 1990s, but income-tax brackets aren't adjusted for the growth of earnings. As a result, Americans will shift into higher tax brackets and pay a greater share of their incomes in taxes. [emphasis added]Via Greg Mankiw, who for inscrutable reasons calls this "reporting."
Of course, tax brackets (with the notable exception of those of the Alternative Minimum Tax) now are indexed for growth in prices, at least to the extent that's measured by CPI. Really, this is part of a broader attack on progressive taxation, as you can see from an earlier effort along these lines by AEI über-hack Kevin Hassett of Dow 36,000 fame. Though I suppose there may be some positive side effects for society if the AEI's paymasters had to allow enough trickle-down to keep average wage growth ahead of CPI.
It has been a very, very good day for Barack Obama. Good enough, in fact, that Time's Mark Halperin is dubbing it "Super Friday" for him. At the moment, he has picked up endorsements from seven superdelegates. And while Hillary Clinton got an endorsement of her own, she also lost one to Obama, so he has netted seven delegates.
The Obama camp has even more reason than just that big score to celebrate with a special happy hour -- according to both the New York Times and ABC News, Obama has now overtaken Clinton and leads her in the two outlets' superdelegate tallies. (A lot of the big media outlets have their own unique tallies; in some, Clinton still leads or is tied with Obama.)
Today, John McCain blamed the curiosity of American voters for a comment he made suggesting Hamas wants Barack Obama to be president. Appearing with Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman at an event in New Jersey, McCain tried to clarify a statement he made on "The Daily Show" on Wednesday night, in which he alleged that Hamas approves of Obama:
It's very obvious to everyone that Sen. Obama shares nothing of the values or goals of Hamas, which is a terrorist organization ... But it's also fact that a spokesperson from Hamas said that he approves of Obama's candidacy. I think that's of interest to the American people.
Ignoring McCain's altruistic invocation of the American populace, his comment may foreshadow how Republicans will attack Obama's foreign policy positions in the general election. Writing for conservative blog Hot Air, "Allahpundit" sums up the Republican outlook nicely:
McCain's point here goes right to the heart of Obama's foreign policy. Yes, it's true that ObamaâÂÂs stance towards Hamas, incoherent though it is, isn't much different from the GOP's, leading one to wonder then why Ahmed Yousef should have any strong preference for him instead of McCain. The answer: Because he knows that the Messiah's willingness to engage in "aggressive" diplomacy with one set of terrorist slackjaws means he's more likely to adopt that policy towards other sets.
On Thursday, in a response to McCain's charge about Hamas, Obama portended a general-election strategy of his own. Obama told CNN, "For [McCain] to toss out comments like that I think is an example of him losing his bearings as he pursues this nomination."
Obama's "losing his bearings" nudge elicited a strong rebuke from McCain aide Mark Salter. Obama "used the words 'losing his bearings' intentionally, a not particularly clever way of raising John McCain's age as an issue," Salter said on Friday. "This is typical of the Obama style of campaigning."
So, who's getting excited for the general election?
Big Tent Democrat wrote about this earlier, but I want to add my thoughts. Paul Krugman's column today, Thinking About November, is excellent. If Obama is the nominee, he says there are a lot of reasons Democrats should sail to an presidential win November. Then he says there is one stumbling block and opines it's a big one:
the fight for the nomination has divided the party along class and race lines in a way that I believe is unprecedented, at least in modern times. Ironically, much of Mr. Obama’s initial appeal was the hope that he could transcend these divisions. At first, voting patterns seemed consistent with this hope. In February, for example, he received the support of half of Virginia’s white voters as well as that of a huge majority of African-Americans.
But this week, Mr. Obama, while continuing to win huge African-American majorities, lost North Carolina whites by 23 points, Indiana whites by 22 points. Mr. Obama’s white support continues to be concentrated among the highly educated; there was little in Tuesday’s results to suggest that his problems with working-class whites have significantly diminished.
In other words, [More...]
Mr. Obama appears to have won the nomination with a deep but narrow base consisting of African-Americans and highly educated whites. And now he needs to bring Democrats who opposed him back into the fold.
Among his solutions is one you read all the time in the comments at TalkLeft.
More tirades from Obama supporters against Mrs. Clinton are not the answer — they will only further alienate her grass-roots supporters, many of whom feel that she received a raw deal.
Nor is it helpful to insult the groups that supported Mrs. Clinton, either by suggesting that racism was their only motivation or by minimizing their importance.
He also has an accurate warning for David Axlerod and Donna Brazile:
After the Pennsylvania primary, David Axelrod, Mr. Obama’s campaign manager, airily dismissed concerns about working-class whites, saying that they have “gone to the Republican nominee for many elections.” On Tuesday night, Donna Brazile, the Democratic strategist, declared that “we don’t have to just rely on white blue-collar voters and Hispanics.” That sort of thing has to stop.
And about Michigan and Florida:
One thing the Democrats definitely need to do is give delegates from Florida and Michigan — representatives of citizens who voted in good faith, and whose support the party may well need this November — seats at the convention.
Let me just add, they need to count the delegates from these states in the vote and pledged and superdelegate totals before the nominee is chosen.
Krugman concluded:
The point is that Mr. Obama has an extraordinary opportunity in this year’s election. He should do everything possible to avoid squandering it.
On a related note, I'm getting a lot of e-mails asking whether TalkLeft will begin advocating against McCain once the nominee is chosen. The answer is, of course. We have always said that we will support whoever the Democratic nominee is. Any Democrat is light-years better than McCain.
There is no nominee yet. There is a "likely" nominee. But it's not a done deal and Hillary is still in the race.
Anything can happen and so long as she remains in the race, I'll keep writing about why she's a great candidate and why I think she's the better candidate to beat McCain.
Should Obama become the nominee, not just in the opinion of the media, but in reality, then I'll start concentrating on defeating McCain. It's not time yet. The problem that Krugman describes is one worthy of consideration before the nomination is decided.
I am a big fan of Ted Kennedy but he does the Democratic Party a great disservice with this type of talk:
Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama isn't likely to pick rival Hillary Clinton as a running mate, according to one of his most prominent supporters. "I don't think it's possible," Massachusetts Senator Edward Kennedy said in an interview on Bloomberg Television's "Political Capital With Al Hunt," airing this weekend.
Kennedy, 76, without naming names, said Obama should pick someone who "is in tune with his appeal for the nobler aspirations of the American people. If we had real leadership -- as we do with Barack Obama -- in the No. 2 spot as well, it'd be enormously helpful," Kennedy said.
What a terrible terrible thing to say. The Obama camp should disavow it. Unless he said it at their behest. In which case, we are gonna lose in November.
By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only
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talk_left : Hillary's Take on the Electoral Map [+0] - trillian42 : (no subject) [+0]
- trillian42 : Link offload [+0]
- talk_left : Rasmussen to Stop Polling Hillary in Daily Tracking Poll [+0]
- talk_left : More On Psycho Ex-Girlfriends [+0]
- talk_left : Friday Night Open Thread [+0]
- talk_left : What Would Happen If Pot Were Legal for Adults? [+0]
- talk_left : Obama Has Visited All 57 States But One [+0]
- talk_left : Bush Judicial Nominee Gus Puryear: Just Say No [+0]
- talk_left : Reveling In The Demise of Their Relevance [+0]
- angrybearfeed : Dep't of Who'd'a Thunk: Interests of Social Security Retirees and High-Bracket Taxpayers Align? [+0]
- angrybearfeed : Open thread on Friday [+0]
- taxprof_blog : Skadden's Tax Work Helps Firm Become D.C. Behemoth [+0]
- taxprof_blog : WSJ: Obama's Faulty Tax Argument [+0]
- salon_war_room : Obama takes superdelegate lead? [+0]
- salon_war_room : McCain defends comments about Hamas, Obama [+0]
- talk_left : Krugman A Must Read Today: What Obama Must Do [+0]
- talk_left : Ted Kennedy's Divisive Rhetoric [+0]
- pennyarcaderss :
News: PA TV going live
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- pennyarcaderss :
News: SecuROM Update
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